Global coffee output is anticipated to fall by about 4% in the upcoming crop year due to lower production forecasts for Brazil and Vietnam, the world's top two coffee producers. Brazil's output is expected to drop by 10.3%, while Vietnam's could see a 5% decline. Despite these drops, global coffee consumption is projected to rise steadily, potentially offsetting some of the price pressures caused by the European debt crisis. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) has revised its global coffee output estimate to 127.4 million bags for the current year, down from 133.2 million bags the previous season. Colombia and Indonesia are also experiencing output challenges, with Colombia's production impacted by heavy rains. However, Indonesia's output forecast has been revised upward. The ongoing economic issues in Europe are contributing to market uncertainty, but coffee consumption remains resilient, driven by growing demand in emerging markets like Russia and China. Meanwhile, Vietnamese farmers are holding onto stocks, affecting robusta coffee prices and market dynamics.
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