Coffee prices fell on Friday, with arabica reaching a 19-month low and robusta a 7-week low. The decline is largely due to an improved global supply outlook, particularly from Brazil and Vietnam. The Brazilian real's weakness has encouraged coffee exports, further pushing prices down. Despite the drop, tight inventories in the spot market have limited losses for arabica coffee.
• Brazil is expected to produce a record coffee crop of 71.9 million bags for 2026/27, a 14% increase from last year.
• Vietnam's coffee exports rose by 7.9% in early 2026, adding pressure to robusta prices.
• Concerns about the El Niño weather pattern could impact Brazil's coffee production next year, potentially supporting prices.
• The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global coffee supplies, increasing costs for importers and roasters.
Understanding these trends is essential for stakeholders in the coffee market. The balance between supply and demand will dictate future price movements. As production forecasts rise, the market must navigate potential weather disruptions and geopolitical factors that could affect availability and costs.
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