After two years of rising prices, the coffee industry is seeing some relief, particularly for arabica coffee. Recent forecasts suggest a record coffee harvest in Brazil for 2026, which is expected to drive prices down. The crop forecasting agency Conab estimates a 17% increase in Brazil's coffee production, with arabica alone projected to rise by 23%. This news is welcomed by coffee roasters and shop owners who have struggled with tight margins. However, potential weather disruptions, such as a "super" El Niño, pose risks to future harvests and prices.
• Arabica prices have recently fallen to an 18-month low, with expectations of reaching US$2/lb soon.
• Brazil's 2026 coffee harvest is projected to be a record 66.7 million bags, with arabica production at 45.77 million bags.
• A surplus of 7 to 10 million bags is expected in the global coffee market for the 2026/27 season.
• Other global developments include Nigeria's coffee revival plan and Starbucks linking tech bonuses to AI usage.
This situation is significant as it could reshape the coffee market, providing opportunities for growth and stability. While the current outlook is optimistic, the industry must remain cautious due to potential climate impacts and trade regulations.
Enjoying the read? Subscribe for free to one of the fastest-growing newsletters and get weekly coffee news (TL;DR updates) delivered right to your inbox.