Brazil's coffee production for the 2025/26 cycle is expected to drop between 3% and 6.4% compared to the previous year. This decline is primarily attributed to dry weather conditions in 2024, which have negatively impacted coffee flowering. Two banks have provided estimates, highlighting significant changes in both arabica and robusta coffee outputs.
• Rabobank predicts a 6.4% decrease in total coffee production, estimating 62.8 million bags for 2025/26, down from 67.1 million bags in 2024/25.
• Arabica coffee production is expected to fall by 13.6% to around 38 million bags, while robusta production is forecasted to rise by 7.3% to a record 24.7 million bags.
• Bank Itau BBA maintains a slightly higher forecast of 64.4 million bags, with a 10% reduction in arabica and a 12% increase in robusta.
Understanding these forecasts is crucial as they can influence global coffee prices and the livelihoods of farmers. The shift in production dynamics may lead to changes in market strategies and consumer prices, affecting both local and international coffee markets.
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